What will the crypto market look like in 2027? (For those unfamiliar, that's a line from the 2011 video game, Deus Ex: Human Revolution). Five years is too short a period for fundamental changes, but five years is just enough for everything to change.
1. The metaverse will not rise
The metaverse is a hot topic, but most people do not have even the slightest idea of what it actually comprises. The metaverse is a holistic virtual world that exists on an ongoing basis (without pauses or resets), works in real-time, accommodates any number of users, has its own economy, is created by the participants themselves, and is characterized by unprecedented interoperability. A variety of applications could (in theory) be integrated into the metaverse, including games, video-conferencing applications, services for issuing driver’s licenses — anything.
Games and social networks that include most of the features stated above have been around for quite some time. Granted, interoperability is a problem that needs to be addressed seriously. There is no reason to include some services in the metaverse at all. Some services will remain isolated due to operators' unwillingness to surrender control over them.
VR hardware is getting better every year, but it's not what we expected. The cyberpunk culture of the 1980s and 90s postulated that the metaverse meant total immersion. Such immersion is now conceived as possible only with the use of virtual reality glasses. VR remains a niche phenomenon even among hardcore gamers.
2. Wallets will become “super apps”
An active decentralized finance (DeFi) user is forced to deal with dozens of protocols these days. Wallets, interfaces, exchanges, bridges, loan protocols — there are hundreds of them, and they are growing daily. Having to live with such an array of technologies is inconvenient even for advanced users. As for the prospects of mass adoption, such a state of affairs is all the more unacceptable.
For the ordinary user, it is ideal when a maximum number of services can be accessed through a limited number of universal applications. The optimal choice is when they are integrated right into their wallet. Storing, exchanging, transferring to other networks, staking — why bother visiting dozens of different sites for accessing such services if all the necessary operations can be carried out using a single interface?
Users don’t care which exchange or bridge they use. They are only concerned about security, speed and low fees. A significant number of DeFi protocols will eventually turn into back-ends that cater to popular wallets and interfaces.
3. Bitcoin will become a unit of account on par with the U.S. dollar or Euro
Many cryptocurrencies are used as a means of payment. But the United States dollar remains the main unit of account in the world. Bitcoin is currently the main candidate for this role.
Cryptocryptology is the idea that digital currencies could one day replace the U.S. dollar and euro as the basic unit of account. What needs to happen in the next five years to make it a reality?
What if the economic crisis lasts longer than expected? And what if the conflict in Ukraine spills over into neighboring countries?
4. At least half of the top 50 cryptocurrencies will see their standing decline
There is a high probability that the list of top cryptocurrencies will radically change. Outright zombies such as Ethereum Classic (ETC) will be ousted from the list, and projects that now seem to hold unshakable positions will not only be de-throned but may also vanish altogether.
5. The crypto market will fragment along geographic lines
Cryptocurrencies are global by default, but they are not invulnerable to the influence of individual states. A number of territories (the U.S., the European Union, China, India, Russia, etc.) have already introduced or are threatening to introduce strict regulation of cryptocurrencies.
When Russia was heavily sanctioned, some crypto projects started restricting Russian users from accessing their services or even blocking their funds. This scenario may play out again with respect to China.
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